A day after Cambodia marked 68 years of independence last month, Prime Minister Hun Sen’s government was hit with a brace of disapproving announcements from Washington that analysts say signal future tensions in the bilateral relationship and risk pushing Phnom Penh further into “China’s corner”.
The first press release on November 10 broadcast new US sanctions against Cambodian navy chief Admiral Tea Vinh and defence ministry equipment tsar General Chau Phirun for allegedly conspiring to profit from the construction and upgrade of a China-linked naval base, which has been a source of tension between Washington and Beijing amid claims it could host Chinese troops.
The second, from the US State Department, cautioned American businesses against investing in Cambodia, citing endemic corruption and the risk of possible involvement with entities involved in human rights abuses, trafficking of people and wildlife, and drugs.
Amid rising US tensions, Cambodia has become increasingly reliant on China in recent years, as Hun Sen – who has been prime minister since 1985 – oversees a shift away from the West and consolidates one-party rule.
John D. Ciorciari, director of the Weiser Diplomacy Centre at the University of Michigan, said Washington’s recent sanctions against Cambodian officials suggest US President Joe Biden’s administration “may have decided that sticks are more promising than carrots”.
“In the unlikely event that Cambodian policies shift, US sanctions could ease. Much more likely is Cambodian intransigence and a gradual US escalation aimed at imposing enough costs to force the Hun Sen government to moderate,” Ciorciari said.
Heightened tensions risk pushing Cambodia further into “China’s corner”, he said, and could result in the US “building out” the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue grouping instead of focusing on the centrality of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations during Cambodia’s year-long chairmanship in 2022.
“That could inhibit Asean’s ability to address region-wide challenges, such as economic recovery and the pandemic, and have adverse longer-term implications for Southeast Asia,” Ciorciari said.
Late last month, Chinese ambassador to Cambodia Wang Wentian stressed the “ironclad brotherhood” that exists between the two countries and their militaries and, in a thinly veiled criticism of US pressure, said they would “tolerate no interference from external forces”.
“We absolutely oppose any forceful action of using freedom, human rights, and democracy as a pretext for jurisdiction beyond borders to interfere into other countries’ internal affairs,” he said at a ceremony marking the handover of China-donated medical equipment to long-time Cambodian Defence Minister Tea Banh, elder brother of sanctioned navy chief Tea Vinh.
Strained ties
After earlier denying US reports that a deal had been struck to allow China exclusive access to parts of Ream Naval Base on the Gulf of Thailand, Cambodia in June made its first open admission that it was accepting Chinese help to modernise the base – where at least two US-built facilities have been torn down since last year. ]
Phnom Penh insisted the demolition of infrastructure was not paving the way for a Chinese military presence at Ream, citing a constitutional ban on Cambodia hosting foreign military bases. Still, Washington in July ceased funding a scholarship programme for Cambodian military personnel because of what a spokesman described as the “curtailment of cooperation in several areas of traditional bilateral military-to-military engagement”.
Over the past three years, the US has sanctioned no fewer than four Cambodian generals and a timber tycoon – all close associates of Hun Sen – over alleged human rights violations, with last month’s targeting of navy chief Tea Vinh striking particularly close to the heart of power.
The Tea family controls one of the most influential factions within the ruling Cambodian People’s Party, which Defence Minister Tea Banh inherited from late party stalwart and fellow ethnic Thai Say Phouthang, who was reportedly instrumental in Hun Sen’s rise to power. The faction is believed to hold sway over the provinces of Koh Kong, Preah Sihanouk, and Siem Reap, among others.
Its grip on the second-largest branch of Cambodia’s armed forces through navy chief Tea Vinh, meanwhile, puts the family second only to the prime minister’s in terms of military control. Lieutenant General Hun Manet, Hun Sen’s eldest son, is head of the largest branch: the army.
Describing last month’s moves by the US as “significant”, Sam Seun, a foreign-policy analyst with the state-run Royal Academy of Cambodia, told This Week in Asia he was “sure Phnom Penh is concerned about the new US sanctions because the US is Cambodia’s main market for exporting its goods, and the US remains one of the world’s most powerful countries”.
“Many wealthy officials may transfer their property to their children, wives, or relatives,” he said, while noting that the increased pressure had also “tarnished Cambodia’s image around the world”.
On Tuesday last week, Cambodia’s Foreign Minister Prak Sokhonn told US State Department representative Derek Chollet that bilateral ties “despite some difficulties, have been on the right track and growing”, according to a foreign ministry read-out of their phone call.
Sokhonn also “expressed appreciation for the [US] commitment to support Asean centrality and the success of Cambodia’s role as the chair of Asean”, the ministry said, as the two reportedly “exchanged views on regional and international development”.
A US State Department spokesperson declined to elaborate on the call, but said the fresh sanctions and business advisory “reaffirmed our commitment to supporting the Cambodian people and their aspirations for a peaceful, prosperous, democratic, and equitable future”.
“Regarding Cambodia’s chairmanship: We are optimistic for the Asean chairmanship year in 2022 and look forward to supporting Cambodia in this role,” the spokesperson told This Week in Asia.
“We look forward to working with Cambodia as Asean chair on our shared regional priorities, including supporting the region’s recovery from Covid-19, addressing the climate crisis, promoting economic growth and developing human capital. We hope that Cambodia will help to hold the Burmese military regime accountable to Asean’s Five-Point Consensus that seeks to address the ongoing crisis in Burma.”
Tariff troubles
Anthony Nelson, a senior director for East Asia and the Pacific at international consultancy Albright Stonebridge Group, said the US State Department’s November 10 business advisory cautioning against investing in Cambodia raised issues that were already “broadly known”.
A greater worry for investors, he said, is the country’s eligibility for a preferential tariff agreement with the US known as the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP).
“I don’t think the content of the advisory itself is damaging … but if investors consider it a marker laid down that makes it more likely that GSP will be revoked, that would make any investor looking at Cambodia for manufacturing nervous,” Nelson said.
The US is Cambodia’s largest export market for clothes, footwear, bags and travel products, according to Phnom Penh’s commerce ministry. Last year, total exports to the US were valued at more than US$6.5 billion and as of the end of September this year stood at about US$6.2 billion.
“Politically, it is very unlikely the Hun Sen government will take enough steps to fully satisfy its critics in Washington, but US policymakers understand a revocation of GSP would hurt vulnerable workers first, so perhaps some face-saving loosening of the political space can be found,” Nelson said.
Amid the fresh wave of US pressure, Cambodian courts have in recent weeks granted a string of conditional releases to nearly 30 political and environmental activists. Three other political refugees deported by Thailand have been arrested.
By Aun Chhengpor / scmp
The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of AsiaWE Review.
