“For most of those which were great once are small today; and those which used to be small, were great in my own time. Knowing, therefore, that human prosperity never abides long in the same place…”
Over the past several decades, deep-rooted European attitudes towards Türkiye, steeped in centuries of fear, chauvinism, and condescension, gradually brought NATO to the crisis experienced in the past two months regarding Finland and Sweden’s accession. European politicians’ inability to self-criticize, identify double-standards, and then implement the correct policies towards terrorist groups such as the PKK (and its alphabet-soup offshoots), FETO, the DHKP-C, and others, predictably and inevitably led them to a moment in which their hypocrisy would be set down in front of their noses.
In the end, an agreement was hammered out. Finland and Sweden have a lot of work to do if they want the Turkish parliament to ratify their membership, and Sweden alone has, according to official Turkish statements, 73 fugitives from justice that Türkiye expects to see extradited. The period in which those societies could coddle such groups with impunity has passed.
But without serious and fundamental reconsideration, without concerted self-examination of prejudices and essential interests, NATO governments –especially those of northern Europe and the Atlantic’s western shore– will continue to experience severe cognitive dissonance in regard to the role, influence, and power that Türkiye now commands not just in NATO, but in a broad expanse of regions that include the Eastern Mediterranean, the Balkans, Central and Southwest Asia, the Caucasus, North Africa, and the Horn of Africa.
Whether U.S. officials have truly grasped this reality remains an open question. The conversations between Presidents Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Joe Biden, by all accounts, were fruitful and positive. And in the immediate aftermath of the summit, the US extradited Memet Gezer, implicated in the May 2013 truck bombing in Reyhanlı, to Türkiye. The timing of Gezer’s extradition made it appear like some sort of quid pro quo, but only time will tell whether that is the case. The US knows what everyone in Türkiye wants to see in regard to extraditions, so no one in Washington should delude themselves into a belief that extraditing Gezer will have some sort of important or long term impact.
F-16s and Senator Menendez
Dominating the post-Madrid summit chatter was the proposed F-16 sale to Türkiye. Over the past two months, as the crisis over Finland and Sweden’s accession gained intensity, President Biden made several statements indicating that he supported the sale, and that he could get the sale approved by Congress. In the summit’s immediate aftermath, South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham was dispatched to Ankara, and publicly declared his support for the sale.
Those following Turkish-American relations during the Trump Administration will remember that Graham tends to sway with the political breeze of the moment. Even though Graham is important as the Ranking Member on the Senate Budget Committee and has previously engaged in direct diplomacy with Ankara, he is no longer on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Ominously, the positive Biden administration comments about the F-16 sale have been met mostly with silence from the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. The one Congressperson that a comment would be expected from is New Jersey Democrat Bob Menendez, the Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. But Menendez has entrenched himself in such a vehemently anti-Turkish stance that, during the Senate hearings on Antony Blinken’s Secretary of State candidacy, he forced Blinken to essentially swear that he would not take any positive steps towards the Turkish government. Only two weeks ago, Menendez accused Türkiye of aiding and abetting Russia through its actions in regard to Finland and Sweden’s NATO accession. Even casual observers now understand such an attitude as extremist militancy.
The US’s current fervid political atmosphere — the result of recent US Supreme Court decisions and the continued gun violence — may provide an opportunity to quickly and quietly get Congressional approval for the F-16 sale. Menendez’s twitter feed, for example, has been dominated by US domestic controversies for the past two weeks, and his single tweet concerning Finland and Sweden’s accession bid was carefully neutral. That may be a positive augury for the F-16 sale, but Menendez still has not publicly expressed support, and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee is the route through which the proposed sale must make its way to the Senate for approval. As recently as May, Menendez still expressed aggressive opposition to the sale.
The arc of history
No matter the F-16 outcome, the multiple roles and powerful influence that Türkiye has accrued since the Ukraine conflict’s outbreak looks to have finally presented the Biden administration with a reality that they cannot avoid, deny, or ignore: they must deal more honestly with the Turkish state and its officials. Even the resentful sotto voce that the New York Times has adopted in its Turkish coverage since the Ukraine conflict’s outbreak betrays the situation’s concrete nature.
What they, and we, are witnessing is historic change. The only pattern that historians have been able to define with confidence is that powers rise and fall, as Herodotus stated so clearly 2,500 years ago. The American world system –partially because of its (and America’s) own flaws, partially because of the rise of other powers– is fragmenting, and other global actors are accumulating new roles, power, and influence. Whether American officials can approach this emerging reality rationally, objectively, and calmly, with informed analysis, and remain focused on the shared democratic interests of all NATO members, is a main drama that will unfold in the coming years. Dr. Adam McConnel / Anadolu Agency
